The Springboks would do well to come out of the Test against the All Blacks at Newlands with their dignity intact, writes JON CARDINELLI.
The All Blacks thrashed the Boks 41-13 in Christchurch and then 57-15 in Durban last year. Three weeks ago, Steve Hansen’s charges scored eight tries and 57 points en route to handing the Boks their heaviest defeat in history.
What kind of carnage can we expect when the Boks host the All Blacks at Newlands? That’s the question that’s been asked since Hansen and his players first arrived in Cape Town on Monday. The All Blacks are favourites to win at Newlands, and the only mystery is by how much.
Former Bok captains Morné du Plessis and Jean de Villiers broached the subject at a function held in Cape Town on Thursday. Du Plessis felt that the Boks would test the visitors and emerge from the contest with their pride intact. De Villiers hopes that the All Blacks will have one of their rare off-days and that the Boks will be good enough to make the opportunity count.
ALSO READ: Tough task just got tougher
There’s no arguing with the All Blacks’ win record. New Zealand have won 90% of their matches since Hansen took the head coaching reins in 2012. They remain unbeaten in this year’s Rugby Championship and have already secured the title – their fifth in six years.
They’ve come to South Africa with their strongest available squad. The coaches have taken steps to ensure that the team maintains its intensity in the next game and in those that follow on the tour to the northern hemisphere.
Three of the All Blacks’ frontline forwards did not tour Argentina. Sam Whitelock, Sam Cane and Liam Squire have been managed with another brutal physical contest against the Boks in mind.
Ryan Crotty, one more player who missed the match against the Pumas, has been brought back to bolster the midfield defence. Replacement flyhalf Lima Sopoaga will lend fresh impetus to the All Blacks’ backline later in the game.
The All Blacks coaches and the players have spoken about the risks of complacency. The management of the players, as well as Hansen’s selections suggest that the All Blacks will be going all out to make another statement.
Meanwhile, Allister Coetzee has selected a pack that he feels will be up to the physical challenge. The Bok lineout was a shambles in Albany, while the aggression and accuracy at the gainline was sorely lacking.
Pieter-Steph du Toit’s inclusion at blindside flank should provide the Boks with a strong option at the back of the lineout. The selection of Du Toit at flank and Francois Louw at No 8 suggests that the Boks will look to slow the All Blacks down at source and ultimately stifle the visitors’ momentum.
And so they should. The Boks outmuscled the All Blacks en route to claiming a narrow win in 2014. The three-straight victories they secured in 2009 were built on forward dominance, a strong defence, and a pinpoint kicking game.
Coetzee’s forward selections are sound in theory. That said, the All Blacks possess two of the world’s finest lineout exponents in Whitelock and Kieran Read. It will be interesting to see if the Boks – or more specifically, hooker Malcolm Marx and his jumpers – can shake off the disappointment of Albany and secure clean ball. Whitelock and company will certainly head into this battle with a mental edge.
ALSO READ: Back-row balance is ‘perfect’
Defence has been a problem for the Boks since the beginning of the 2016 season. They showed some improvements in the matches against France and Argentina this year. The shaky performances against Australia and New Zealand, however, have challenged the assertion that real progress has been made in this department.
The All Blacks have the players to win the collisions at close quarters. They certainly have the physical specimens to hurt the Boks out wide, as we saw when Rieko Ioane and others bulldozed their way through Raymond Rhule and Courtnall Skosan.
The Boks have kicked more than any other side in this year’s tournament. They haven’t, however, kicked with a great deal of intent or accuracy.
The All Blacks’ weakness is at the back. Damian McKenzie and Nehe Milner-Skudder are smaller players who aren’t known for their prowess in the air. The better teams will exploit that weakness. They will kick on McKenzie, send in the chasers to contest, win the ball back, and then run at a fractured defence.
Elton Jantjies has blown hot and cold in this tournament. He will need his forwards to provide him with a decent platform if he is going to make an impact in Saturday’s Test. That said, he will also need to be more accurate with his kicking and communicate better with his outside backs. As Coetzee and Hansen have said this past week, the quality of the decision-making and execution has let the Boks down in recent clashes.
The Boks should be good for a passionate and powerful 40-minute performance this Saturday. The game was still in the balance (15-10 to the All Blacks) at half-time in Christchurch last year, and in the next clash (12-9) in Durban. The All Blacks shifted gears during the latter stages of both contests, though, to punish a tiring and ill-equipped South African defence.
History may well repeat itself at Newlands this Saturday. The All Blacks have the personnel to absorb the pressure exerted by the Boks in the first half. They have the experience and quality on the bench – not to mention a superior level of conditioning – to inflict maximum damage on the opposition defence in the final quarter.
SUPERBRU: SA Rugby magazine team’s picks
Stats and facts
o New Zealand have scored 114 points in their last two games against South Africa (exactly 57 on each occasion), and are coming off the back of the biggest win in the history of this fixture (57-0).
o The All Blacks have now won five games on the bounce against South Africa. The last time they won more in succession was an eight-game streak from 2001 to 2004.
o This will be the 10th meeting between these sides at Newlands; in none of the previous nine meetings at the venue did either side scored more than 30 points; in fact, only twice has a side reached 20 points.
o The Springboks have won eight of their last 10 games at Newlands, but will be looking to avoid back-to-back defeats at the venue for the first time since 1974 after a six-point loss to Ireland in 2016.
o In fact, South Africa have lost only one of their last 10 Tests on home turf (won eight, drawn one), a 57-15 loss to New Zealand in October 2016 the only blemish in that period.
o New Zealand have scored 221 points and 32 tries in this tournament this year, they need 42 points and seven tries in this game to break the competition records they set last year.
o New Zealand are the only side yet to lose a scrum on their own feed in this tournament, winning 39 from 39.
o New Zealand have scored 19 first-half tries this Rugby Championship campaign, more than three times as many as any other team (South Africa have scored five).
o The Springboks are the only team this tournament to have used just one goal kicker, with Elton Jantjies booting 23 of his 28 attempts.
o All Blacks duo Damian McKenzie and Beauden Barrett have each made 57 carries this campaign, more than any other player at the tournament.
Springboks – 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronjé, 8 Francois Louw, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Eben Etzebeth (c), 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Chiliboy Ralepelle, 17 Trevor Nyakane,18 Wilco Louw, 19 Franco Mostert, 20 Jean-Luc du Preez, 21 Rudy Paige, 22 Handré Pollard, 23 Damian de Allende.
All Blacks –15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Nehe Milner-Skudder, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Scott Barrett, 4 Samuel Whitelock, 3 Nepo Laulala, 2 Dane Coles, 1 Kane Hames.
Subs: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Matt Todd, 21 Tawera Kerr-Barlow, 22 Lima Sopoaga, 23 David Havili.
Photo: Anthony Au-Yeung/Getty Images
