JON CARDINELLI looks ahead to the first three Super Rugby matches of round 11, including those involving the Stormers and Lions.
HURRICANES vs SUNWOLVES (Wellington, Friday, 09:35)
The inclement weather made for an interesting clash in Christchurch last week. The Sunwolves forwards fought hard and the Crusaders went to the break with a relatively narrow 14-5 lead.
The reigning champions shifted gears in the second stanza, though, and finished the contest with a 33-11 bonus-point win.The Crusaders were still good enough to put five tries past the Sunwolves defence in tough conditions.
How will the Sunwolves fare if it doesn’t rain in Wellington this Friday? Well, they may want to forget about their previous encounter with the Hurricanes, which witnessed 83 points and 13 tries by the New Zealand side.
The Crusaders overtook the Hurricanes at the top of the New Zealand conference last week. The latter side, coming off a bye, should not want for motivation this Friday, and will settle for nothing less than a bonus-point win.
Ben Lam should add to his already impressive try-tally. All Blacks wing Julian Savea and the Barrett brothers should cause that Sunwolves defence – which, according to Opta, has missed a whopping 26 tackles per game this season – significant problems.
Stats and facts
o The Hurricanes’ 83-17 win against the Sunwolves in their only previous encounter remains their biggest Super Rugby victory.
o The Hurricanes have won their last six games on the bounce; the last time they won more was a 10-game streak across the 2016 and 2017 campaigns which saw them lift the trophy in 2016.
o The Hurricanes have won their last 14 home games against teams from outside New Zealand, those victories coming by an average margin of 26 points.
o The Sunwolves have conceded just 19 first-half points across their last two games, their fewest ever in any two consecutive Super Rugby fixtures.
o The Sunwolves will again be searching for their maiden Super Rugby win away from home (lost 18), having lost their last five away fixtures by an average margin of 35 points per game.
Hurricanes – 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Julian Savea, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Vince Aso, 11 Ben Lam, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Finlay Christie, 8 Brad Shields (c), 7 Ardie Savea/Sam Henwood, 6 Reed Prinsep, 5 Murray Douglas, 4 Michael Fatialofa, 3 Ben May, 2 Ricky Riccitelli, 1 Toby Smith.
Subs: 16 James O’Reilly, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Jeff Toomaga-Allen, 19 Sam Lousi, 20 Gareth Evans, 21 Jamie Booth, 22 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 23 Nehe Milner-Skudder.
Sunwolves –15 William Tupou, 14 Hosea Saumaki, 13 Timothy Lafaele, 12 Michael Little, 11 Kenki Fukuoka, 10 Hayden Parker, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Kazuki Himeno, 7 Pieter Labuschagne (c), 6 Yoshitaka Tokunaga, 5 Grant Hattingh, 4 James Moore, 3 Jiwon Koo, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Craig Millar.
Subs: 16 Jaba Bregvadze, 17 Shintato Ishihara, 18 Nikoloz Khatiashvili, 19 Wimpie van der Walt, 20 Edward Quirk, 21 Yutaka Nagare, 22 Yo Tamura, 23 Semisi Masirewa.
SUPERBRU: SA Rugby magazine team’s picks
STORMERS vs REBELS (Cape Town, Friday, 15:05)
The Stormers come into this clash desperate for any sort of win. Robbie Fleck’s side has lost six of its first nine matches, and now faces a mad scramble to qualify for the playoffs.
The Stormers have enjoyed plenty of possession over the course of the 2018 season, and have created numerous try-scoring opportunities. Their finishing has let them down, though, and after nine games they are ranked 11th out of 15 teams for tries and points per game.
Poor defence has proved costly. The Stormers missed 25 tackles in their recent defeat to the Sharks at Kings Park. Overall, they have an 82% success rate on defence, and have conceded more tries (40) than any other team, bar the Sunwolves.
To be fair, the Stormers have been a different side at Newlands. They did not want for physicality in the recent clashes against the Reds and Blues, and come into this game with a three from three home record.
The Rebels impressed during the early rounds of the competition. They’ve lost their last three matches, though, a record that includes the recent defeat to the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld.
The Stormers should be boosted by the return of flanker Kobus van Dyk. The selection of JJ Engelbrecht ahead of Raymond Rhule – a serial offender as far as poor defence is concerned – should make a difference out wide.
The Cape side should be good enough to beat this Rebels side at Newlands. Whether they can score a bonus-point victory is another story. Fleck’s team is yet to claim a try-scoring bonus point in the 2018 tournament.
Stats and facts
o The Stormers have won four of their previous five encounters against the Rebels, including each of the last two.
o The Stormers have won 12 of their last 13 regular-season games at home against teams visiting from outside South Africa, including each of their last seven such fixtures.
o The Rebels have won only one of 10 games away from home since the beginning of last season (drawn one, lost eight), with that sole win coming against the Sunwolves in round three this season.
o The Stormers have enjoyed 17 minutes and 52 seconds of time in possession per game this season, the second most of any team (the Blues have had 18 minutes and 26 seconds).
o Sefanaia Naivalu makes an average gain of 13m per carry this season, the best of any player to have made at least five carries this season (26 carries, 338m).
Stormers –15 Dillyn Leyds, 14 Craig Barry, 13 EW Viljoen, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 JJ Engelbrecht, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 7 Kobus van Dyk, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Chris van Zyl, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Ramone Samuels, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 JC Janse van Rensburg, 18 Carlu Sadie, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Nizaam Carr, 21 Paul de Wet, 22 SP Marais, 23 Seabelo Senatla.
Rebels – 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 Tom English, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Michael Ruru, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Angus Cottrell, 6 Lopeti Timani, 5 Adam Coleman (c), 4 Matt Philip, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Tetera Faulkner.
Subs: 16 Sama Malolo, 17 Fereti Sa’aga, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Geoff Parling, 20 Colby Fainga’a, 21 Harrison Goddard, 22 Semisi Tupou, 23 Sefa Naivalu.
COLUMN: Stormers have failed to tackle key issue
REDS vs LIONS (Brisbane, Saturday, 07:05)
The Lions impressed in their 29-0 bonus-point win against the Waratahs in Sydney last week. With that result, they have gathered some momentum and confidence ahead of three more tour fixtures against the Reds, Hurricanes and Highlanders.
The Reds have the worst attacking record in the tournament, averaging 17.9 points and 1.9 tries per match. The stats suggest that their defence has been up there with the best in the tournament. They have completed 85% of their tackles and, in theory, should be difficult to breach this weekend.
That said, the Chiefs managed to put 36 points and five tries past the Reds in Brisbane last week. The Lions – who have the best attacking record at present and are the overall log leaders – should be aiming for another bonus-point win.
The Lions have taken some wonderful attacking options this season. Their success, however, can be put down to the strength of their set pieces. The side from Johannesburg has scored more tries (21) than any other team from first phase in 2018.
Malcolm Marx has played a key role at the scrums and lineouts. His impact at the breakdown has been monstrous. One would expect the Bok hooker to lead the physical charge in Brisbane this Saturday.
Another big win would set the Lions up nicely ahead of their two-game tour of New Zealand. Their next fixture against the Hurricanes in Wellington promises to be one of the highlights of the regular season.
Stats and facts
o The Lions have won their last three games against the Reds, including a 44-14 victory in their last meeting – the biggest win in the history of the fixture.
o The Reds have scored just one first-half try in their last four games at home, although they’ve scored four in the second half of games in that span.
o The Lions have won their last six games on the bounce in Australia, winning by an average margin of 15 points per game in that time.
o The Lions boast a lineout success rate of 91% this season, the best of any team.
o James Tuttle has a goal-kicking success rate of 88% this campaign, the best of any player to have made at least five attempts at the uprights.
Reds – 15 Aidan Toua, 14 Filipo Daugunu, 13 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 12 Samu Kerevi (c), 11 Jordan Petaia, 10 Hamish Stewart, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Caleb Timu, 7 George Smith, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Jean-Pierre Smith.
Subs: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 Harry Hoopert, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Harry Hockings, 20 Adam Korczyk, 21 Moses Sorovi, 22 Duncan Paia’aua , 23 Izaia Perese.
Lions – 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Harold Vorster, 12 Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 11 Madosh Tambwe, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Dillon Smit, 8 Hacjivah Dayimani, 7 Franco Mostert (c), 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Jacques van Rooyen.
Subs: 16 Robbie Coetzee, 17 Dylan Smith, 18 Johannes Jonker, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Cyle Brink, 21 Marnus Schoeman, 22 Nic Groom, 23 Ashlon Davids.
Photo: Samuel Shivambu/BackpagePix
