JON CARDINELLI looks at the permutations for Western Province, Free State, the Golden Lions, the Blue Bulls, and even the Pumas in the final round of the Currie Cup regular season.
BLUE BULLS
Log position: 5
Log points: 27
The Bulls go into the final round needing a bonus-point win against the Pumas to improve their chances of playoff qualification. They may also need a few results to go their way to make the final four.
The Bulls can finish on 32 log points. Whatever the result in the match between the Lions and Cheetahs in Johannesburg, the Bulls will be hoping that the loser of that game doesn’t obtain any bonus points. That outcome will ensure that the Bulls finish higher (than the loser at Ellis Park) in the standings.
PUMAS
Log position: 6
Log points: 26
The Pumas still have a mathematical chance of qualifying for the playoffs. At this stage, they have 26 log points. They could finish with 31 if they secure a bonus-point win against the Bulls in Pretoria this Friday.
If the Pumas claim five log points this weekend and the Cheetahs none, both will finish with 31 log points. In that scenario, the Pumas will finisher higher than the Cheetahs due to their superior points difference.
A win for the Pumas and a heavy loss for the Lions would also see the side from Nelspruit advancing to the playoffs. The Lions have to beat the Cheetahs this Saturday, or secure at least one bonus point in a losing cause to ensure that they finish higher than the Pumas in that scenario.
If these teams finish on the same number of log points, the Pumas will advance. Their superior points difference would be decisive.
WESTERN PROVINCE
Log position: 2
Log points: 32
The Sharks have already taken an unassailable lead at the top of the Currie Cup log. They will host a semi-final, and should they progress, a final.
The big question is whether coach Robert du Preez will field his strongest side in Durban this Saturday. If the Sharks rest their stars, WP may well have a chance to beat the tournament favourites, finish second on the log, and host a semi-final at Newlands next week.
If WP lose by seven points or fewer, and claim a further bonus point for scoring four or more tries, they will then await the result of the subsequent game in Johannesburg. If the Cheetahs win and WP lose, then John Dobson’s side will not host a playoff.
If the Lions win without a bonus point, they will finish on the same number of points (34) as WP. In that scenario, WP would remain in second position due to their superior points difference. At this stage, WP (+91) are well ahead of the Lions (-76) in this regard.
FREE STATE CHEETAHS
Log position: 3
Log points: 31
The Cheetahs and Lions need the Sharks to do them a favour in Durban. If the Sharks beat WP and deny the Cape side two bonus points, then the winner of the game in Johannesburg will move into second place and secure semi-final hosting rights.
If the Bulls secure a bonus-point win on Friday, they will move up to 32 points. In that scenario, the Cheetahs (currently on 31) will go into their final match on Saturday needing at least two log points to qualify for their playoffs.
A win would boost them into the final four, and secure them a home semi-final. They can’t afford to finish with the same number of log points as the Bulls though, as John Mitchell’s men have a vastly superior points difference (-5 to the Cheetahs’ -74 at this stage).
GOLDEN LIONS
Log position: 4
Log points: 30
The Lions have welcomed back several Boks. They will have the advantage of playing at home. That said, the pressure will be on Swys de Bruin’s side to deliver.
A win – without a bonus point – could be enough to earn the Lions a home semi-final. They would need the Sharks to beat the WP well, though.
A loss, however, could see the Lions failing to qualify for the playoffs. The Bulls could overtake them with a big win in Pretoria. So could the Pumas, if they manage to beat the Bulls.
The Lions’ current points difference (-76) is worse than that of the Bulls (-5) and Pumas (-3). They can’t afford a scenario in which they finish on the same number of log points as those teams.
Photo: Frikkie Kapp/BackpagePix
