The Wallabies can expect a backlash when they host the All Blacks in their Rugby Championship opener in Sydney on Saturday, writes JON CARDINELLI.
Steve Hansen’s All Blacks have nothing to prove. They’ve won four of the past five Rugby Championship tournaments. They won all six of their matches in the 2016 installment, and claimed six try-scoring bonus points in the process.
That said, the All Blacks may still be hurting after that drawn series against the British & Irish Lions in June. New Zealand lost the second Test of that series and then drew the third.
It’s not often that the mighty All Blacks go winless in back-to-back games. They should be desperate to get back to winning ways in Sydney this Saturday.
One often gets the feeling that the Bledisloe Cup means more to the Australasians than the Rugby Championship title itself. New Zealand have held the Bledisloe Cup since 2003. Despite their dominance of the trans-Tasman rivalry in recent years, the All Blacks remain determined to retain the title, and ultimately a mental edge, over the Wallabies.
It’s hard to recall when last Australian rugby was in this bad a shape. The Aussie Super Rugby teams combined for one win and 25 losses against New Zealand opposition in the recent tournament. The Wallabies lost to Scotland at home this past June. Australian Rugby Union CEO Bill Pulver recently resigned over the decision to axe an Australian side (the Force) from the Super Rugby tournament.
Lock Adam Coleman, who also plays for the Force, admitted earlier this week that the Super Rugby cull has been a distraction. At the same time, Coleman said that an intense four-week training camp has brought the Wallabies players together.
‘The boys believe now more than ever that this weekend we can beat the All Blacks,’ Coleman said. ‘The growth the team has experienced over the last four weeks, not only physically, but mentally … [has been beneficial]. That mental resilience, that hard training that we’ve been doing, especially for the young guys experiencing it for the first time, that’s paid dividends.’
The Wallabies will need more than an improved attitude to end their losing streak against the All Blacks, though. Coach Michael Cheika has backed former league star Curtis Rona to debut on the wing. Kurtley Beale will start his first Test at No 12. It will take time for the new combinations to gel.
One cannot see the Wallabies living with the All Blacks at the set pieces. The visitors should also have the edge over the hosts at the collisions and breakdowns. The Aussies were ranked last across these categories in the 2016 Rugby Championship.
Hansen has opted for a loose-forward combination of Liam Squire, Sam Cane and Kieran Read. Ardie Savea is on the bench. There is no room in the 23 for veteran Jerome Kaino. That says a lot of the All Blacks’ depth in this department.
The Wallabies had an 83% tackle completion (rank third) and averaged 25 missed tackles (the worst) in the 2016 tournament. Their defence will be hard-pressed to live with the New Zealand attack.
Much has been made about the Lions’ successful rush defence tactics in the recent series in New Zealand. Cheika said earlier this week that the Wallabies would do well to use these tactics in the coming match in Sydney.
Yet it should be remembered that the Lions’ excellent defence began with an excellent set-piece and gainline challenge. If the Wallabies fail to compete in these areas, they will fail to put the All Blacks’ attack under pressure at the breakdown and in the wider channels.
Damian McKenzie has been picked at No 15, while Ben Smith has shifted to wing. The Wallabies may look to target the shorter player with a series of high kicks. That said, they will fail to implement a kicking strategy to any great effect if their forwards are on the back foot.
Stats and facts
o The All Blacks have won their last five games against the Wallabies.
o New Zealand posted a 42-8 win against Australia when they last met at ANZ Stadium, the biggest win in the history of the fixture at that venue (16 games).
o The All Blacks have lost only one of their last seven games within Australia (won four, drawn two), and will be looking to win consecutive fixtures on Australian soil for the first time since winning four on the trot from 2008 to 2010.
o Australia scored five tries in the opening 20 minutes of games in last year’s edition of the tournament, more than any other team, and the Wallabies’ most in any quarter.
o New Zealand haven’t lost a scrum on their own feed in any of their last four Tests (34/34), and have lost just three of 76 scrums overall in their last 11 Tests.
o Tatafu Polota-Nau has made 44 appearances off the bench for the Wallabies, and his next will make him the most capped player off the bench in Australia’s history, eclipsing James Slipper (44).
o Ben Smith has scored 16 tries from 23 fixtures at the Rugby Championship, the equal third-most of any player in the history of the competition, while only one All Black (Richie McCaw, 17) has scored more.
o Michael Hooper made 72 tackles at the 2016 edition, seven more than any other player in the competition.
o Beauden Barrett high-scored with a haul of 81 points in the 2016 Rugby Championship, 28 more than next-best Bernard Foley and Nicolás Sánchez.
Wallabies – 15 Israel Folau, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Samu Kerevi, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Curtis Rona, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Will Genia, 8 Sean McMahon, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Ned Hanigan, 5 Adam Coleman, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Scott Sio.
Subs: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Sekope Kepu, 19 Rob Simmons, 20 Lopeti Timani, 21 Nick Phipps, 22 Reece Hodge, 23 Tevita Kuridrani.
All Blacks – 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Ryan Crotty, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read (c), 7 Sam Cane, 6 Liam Squire, 5 Samuel Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody.
Subs: 16 Nathan Harris, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Ardie Savea, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Lima Sopoaga, 23 Anton Lienert-Brown.
Photo: Matt Roberts/Getty Images
