CRAIG LEWIS looks at five areas of the game that will be key to the outcome of Saturday’s final between the Lions and Crusaders at Ellis Park.

Attacking execution
Both teams rank among the top five this season for tries, points scored, carries, metres made, clean breaks and defenders beaten. Furthermore, the Lions (572m) and Crusaders (513m) are two of only three teams (Hurricanes, 520m) to have gained an average of over 500m per game this season. It should make for an enthralling battle between two sides that are extremely efficient at making the most of the possession that they enjoy. The Lions have been particularly clinical from first phase, which has seen them score a whopping 37 tries, while recording another 25 after two to three phases. The Crusaders are not far behind (29 and 22), and with both teams boasting a highly impressive conversion rate, it shapes up to be a thrilling attacking battle on Saturday. Besides the fact that both teams are lethal on the counter-attack, their ability to strike from set-piece play and feed off quick ball at the breakdown is also key to their cause. Ultimately, the team that can establish front-foot ball through ascendancy at the set pieces and breakdown will be extremely difficult to keep quiet on attack.

Set pieces
The Crusaders boast an All Blacks-laden pack, and it’s among the forward exchanges that they will fancy their chances of coming out on top. The Saders boast a 95% scrum success and a 92% lineout success rate. They are a fearsome foe in this regard, and there is no doubt that the Lions will need to assert themselves at the set pieces if they are to have any hope of coming out on top in the title decider. Much of the work the Lions complete at the set pieces does go unheralded, but in Ruan Dreyer, Malcolm Marx and Jacques van Rooyen, they have a formidable front row of their own. This season, Franco Mostert has also reigned supreme at lineout time (with a competition-high 16 steals to his name), with the lanky lock increasingly drawing comparisons to former Bok great Victor Matfield. Having said that, the Crusaders can call on veteran All Blacks such as Sam Whitelock and Kieran Read to make an impact up front. By all accounts, the set-piece battle should be worth the admission fee alone at Ellis Park.

ALSO READ: Lions pack must roar

Goal-kicking
The Crusaders’ goal-kicking percentage sits at a lowly 67% (only better than the Reds and Rebels), with flyhalf Richie Mo’unga having endured his struggles from the kicking tee at times this season, while the Lions have enjoyed a better return with a 75% success rate. Elton Jantjies has worked extremely hard at his goal-kicking, but few will forget the implosion he endured in the recent quarter-final against the Sharks, where he missed two conversions and a couple of penalties. All in all, one would imagine that the place-kicking could be something of a lottery on Saturday, but it is an area where the Lions should have the edge, particularly considering they can also call on the long-distance boot of Ruan Combrinck. Whatever the case, discipline is sure to be a key factor in the final, with the Lions averaging just 8.5 penalties conceded per game (rank five), while the Saders are averaging 9.3 (rank nine).

Defence
The defensive abilities of the Crusaders were central to their semi-final victory over the Chiefs, with the hosts being asked to make more than 200 tackles, and yet they conceded just the solitary try. In particular, their scramble defence in the first half spoke volumes about the cohesion and commitment that the Saders possess. There is also no doubt that the Crusaders would have taken note of the manner in which the Sharks and Hurricanes were able to disrupt the Johannesburg-based side through their effective rush defence, while both teams also exposed some holes in the Lions’ defence at times in their playoff fixtures. While the Lions may have some vulnerabilities in this regard, the fact remains that they have a healthy enough 84% tackle success rate, just 1% less than the Crusaders. Rest assured, both teams are likely to tackle themselves to a standstill on Saturday, but it really is defence as much as attack that could decide the ultimate outcome.

Altitude factor
When speaking of defence, it will be very interesting to see how the Crusaders manage to maintain their tackling intensity over the course of 80 minutes on the highveld. Last Saturday, the Canes perhaps got a little carried away with their attacking endeavours in the opening stanza, and the Lions admitted that they had sensed their opponents were growing tired even before half-time. In the end, the Lions punished the tiring Canes, ultimately outscoring them 40-7 in the final 50 minutes. The Crusaders have now endured a journey from Christchurch to Johannesburg, and their ability to pace themselves at altitude will be crucial if they are to have any hope of becoming the first side to traverse the Indian Ocean and win a final away from home. It also certainly won’t serve as any comfort when they take note of the fact that the Lions have scored 30 tries in the final quarter of their games so far this season, more than any other team, while they have conceded just five in the same time frame, fewer than any other team.

ALSO READ: Lions have final lesson to learn

Photo: Ryan Willkisky/BackpagePix