The Lions will need to win the set-piece and gainline battles in order to negate the Crusaders’ rush defence in the Super Rugby final at Ellis Park on Saturday, writes JON CARDINELLI.
Earlier this year, Stormers coach Robbie Fleck made an interesting point about the Crusaders. Scott Robertson’s charges were unbeaten at that stage, and were leading the way across attacking categories such as points and tries scored.
Fleck, however, felt that the Crusaders’ success could be attributed in large to their aggressive defence. This year, said Fleck, the Crusaders were rushing and pressing a lot more. The players implemented this system, both physically and accurately to shut down the space of the opposition and, on occasion, force turnovers that led to counterattacking opportunities.
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This approach has become more prominent in the playoffs. Defence wins trophies, and the stats suggest that the Crusaders have embraced this maxim wholeheartedly.
Last week, the Crusaders flew up into the faces of the Chiefs. They made a whopping 211 tackles (more than twice their game average this season) and 31 kicks from hand (10 more than their game average).
The big question is whether the Crusaders can maintain that kind of effort for 80 minutes at Ellis Park. The batteries must be running low after an immensely physical performance against the Chiefs, as well as a taxing journey from Christchurch to Johannesburg.
The Lions can’t take anything for granted, though. They were tactically and physically inferior over the course of the first 30 minutes of the semi-final against the Hurricanes. Those mistakes cost them 22 points.
They can’t afford a slow start against a team like the Crusaders. A strong performance by the forwards at the set pieces and collisions will ensure that the Crusaders defenders remain on the back foot. That, in turn, will limit the impact of the New Zealanders’ rush tactics.
It also wouldn’t hurt to have referee Jaco Peyper and his assistants keeping a close eye to ensure that the Kiwis remain onside.
The Lions go into this match with only one real bruiser – Ruan Ackermann – in their back row. This suggests that they will be banking on their tight five to provide momentum on attack and defence. Nevertheless, Jaco Kriel and Kwagga Smith will also need to play their part in the trenches.
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It will be interesting to see how halfbacks Ross Cronjé and Elton Jantjies respond to the pressure exerted by the Crusaders. Jantjies may look to put a kick or two in behind the Crusaders defence. An inside ball to Ruan Combrinck or Courtnall Skosan may also allow the Lions to come out on top in this battle.
Jantjies finished strongly in the semi-final against the Hurricanes. The flyhalf will have a key role to play this Saturday, both in general play and in front of goal. According to Opta, Jantjies is the top-ranked goal-kicker in the tournament, and has one of the better success rates (77%).
Opposite number Richie Mo’unga, however, has struggled in front of goal. The Crusaders flyhalf goes into the Super Rugby final with a 70% success rate. That stat should concern the Crusaders and New Zealand fans ahead of what should be a tight contest.
The Lions will have a significant advantage by playing this fixture at home. A full house is expected at Ellis Park this Saturday, and I doubt many of those fans will be supporting the Crusaders.
The odds are certainly against the Crusaders becoming the first side to traverse the Indian Ocean and win a Super Rugby final. That said, the Lions would do well to meet the physical challenge of an All Blacks-laden pack with the aim of negating that rush defence.
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Stats and facts
o The Lions claimed a 42-25 win when they last met the Crusaders in the 2016 quarter-finals, snapping a seven-game losing streak against the Christchurch-based side in the process.
o The last time a team won a Super Rugby final played outside their country was in 2000, when the Crusaders beat the Brumbies in Canberra.
o The Crusaders have been crowned Super Rugby champions on seven occasions and featured in 11 finals, both competition records.
o However, the Christchurch-based side has lost each of its last two finals, only the Sharks (four) have lost more than two in a row when reaching the final.
o Three of the previous four finals to be contested by sides from New Zealand and South Africa have been won by the New Zealand outfit. However, the one defeat in that run was the heaviest ever in a final (the Bulls beat the Chiefs 61-17 in 2009).
o Eight of the last 11 Super Rugby finals have been decided by margins of eight points or fewer, however, the three exceptions in that run were all games between South African and New Zealand sides.
o The Lions head into this fixture on the back of a 14-game winning streak; the Crusaders are the only team in Super Rugby history to have won more games in succession, which they’ve done twice (15 straight in 2002-03; 16 straight in 2005-06).
o The Crusaders won each of their five games outside New Zealand this season, scoring an average of 43 points per game.
o South African teams have won nine of their last 12 playoff fixtures at home against New Zealand opposition; in fact, the Stormers are the only team in Super Rugby history to have lost such a fixture (four instances).
o Only once in Super Rugby history has a team contested consecutive finals without winning at least one of them (Crusaders in 2003 and 2004).
o The Lions have scored 30 tries in the final quarter of games so far this season, more than any other team, while they also conceded just five in the same time frame, fewer than any other team.
Lions – 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Courtnall Skosan, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Ross Cronjé, 8 Ruan Ackermann, 7 Kwagga Smith, 6 Jaco Kriel (c), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Jacques van Rooyen.
Subs: 16 Akker van der Merwe, 17 Corné Fourie, 18 Johannes Jonker, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Cyle Brink, 21 Faf de Klerk, 22 Rohan Janse van Rensburg, 23 Sylvian Mahuza.
Crusaders – 15 David Havili, 14 Israel Dagg, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Seta Tamanivalu, 10 Richie Mo’unga, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Sam Whitelock (c), 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Joe Moody.
Subs: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Michael Alaalatoa, 19 Luke Romano, 19 Pete Samu, 20 Mitchell Drummond, 21 Mitchell Hunt, 23 George Bridge
Photo: Lee Warren/Gallo Images
