JON CARDINELLI looks ahead to the first three Super Rugby matches of round six, including the games involving the Bulls and Sharks in Australasia.
CRUSADERS vs BULLS (Christchurch, Friday 08:35)
The Bulls made a statement in their first match of the season when they thumped the Hurricanes in Pretoria. Since then, poor defence and worse discipline have led to three straight defeats.
Much has been made about their improved attack. Anyone who watched the first half of the recent clash in Hamilton might believe that John Mitchell’s side is right up there with the best attacking teams in the tournament.
The stats via Opta suggest that the Bulls are still a work in progress, though. The Bulls average 11.5 clean breaks (12th out of 15 teams) and 398m per game (13th). No team has beaten fewer defenders (18.3) or made fewer offloads (6.3) on average this season.
Consistency has been a problem. We saw the Bulls firing and then fading against the Reds in Brisbane. They scored 28 points and four tries in the first half of the game against the Chiefs, and then zero points in the second stanza.
They’ve leaked 18 tries in four matches. They rank 13th for missed tackles (26.5 per game) and 14th for tackle completion (80%).
Another patchy performance will result in another disappointing defeat. The Crusaders will be up for the fixture on Friday, having lost two games on the bounce. They should be desperate to prove a point.
Can the Bulls lift their performance at the end of a taxing and disappointing tour? They have the lineout to challenge a crack Crusaders set piece. Handré Pollard and the likes of Warrick Gelant could be a factor on attack if the Bulls get onto the front foot.
It wouldn’t surprise to see the Bulls in the contest for 60 minutes. Thereafter, the Crusaders, as New Zealand teams so often do, should move up a gear to breach the South African side’s defence and claim a convincing win.
Stats and facts
o The Crusaders have won four of their last six games against the Bulls, including a 62-24 win in their last encounter; the second biggest win in the history of the fixture.
o The Bulls won their first-ever meeting against the Crusaders in New Zealand (1996); however, the Canterbury side has won all 10 such fixtures since by an average margin of 22 points.
o The Crusaders come into this game on the back of consecutive defeats, the last time they lost more regular-season games in succession was a three-game stretch in April-May 2010.
o The Crusaders have won their last eight regular-season games against South African opposition, scoring an average of 48 points per game in that span.
o The Bulls have lost their last eight games in New Zealand, a stretch which began with a 22-point loss to the Crusaders.
Crusaders – 15 David Havili, 14 Manasa Mataele, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Mitchell Hunt, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Jordan Taufua, 7 Billy Harmon, 6 Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, 5 Sam Whitelock (c), 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor 1 Tim Perry.
Subs: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Oliver Jager, 19 Quinten Strange, 20 Tom Sanders, 21 Bryn Hall, 22 Brett Cameron, 23 Braydon Ennor.
Bulls – 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Burger Odendaal (c), 11 Divan Rossouw, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Embrose Papier, 8 Tim Agaba, 7 Hanro Liebenberg, 6 Roelof Smit, 5 Lood de Jager, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Jaco Visagie, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Substitutes: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Lizo Gqoboka, 18 Frans van Wyk, 19 Hendré Stassen, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Ivan van Zyl, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Johnny Kötze.
SUPERBRU: SA Rugby magazine team’s predictions
REBELS vs SHARKS (Melbourne, Friday 10:45)
Prior to the start of the 2018 tournament, many felt that the Sharks had been handed a favourable draw. There was plenty of optimism ahead of an Australasian tour that began with matches against the battling Brumbies in Canberra and the rabble Rebels in Melbourne.
The Sharks have failed to live up to their pre-season promise, though. The poor performances up front have been exacerbated by some frantic execution and decision-making in the backs. They slumped to a disappointing draw against the Waratahs in Durban two weeks ago, and went down to the Brumbies in the Australian capital more recently.
Will the Sharks bounce back against the Rebels in Melbourne? The Rebels have won three from four, and look to be a more competitive side under coach Dave Wessels. They beat the Reds, Sunwolves and Brumbies before copping a hiding at the hands of the Waratahs.
The latter game was played this past Sunday. A mere five days separate the Rebels’ fixtures against the Waratahs and the Sharks.
The Sharks must view this as an opportunity to get back to winning ways. They also have a short week, having played their last game on Saturday. The forwards in particular will need to fire, though, if the men in Durban are going to claim their first – and possibly only – win on tour.
According to Opta, the Sharks (76%) have the worst scrum success rate in the tournament. While they have two of the best jumpers in the competition, the lineout is ranked ninth with an 85% win-ratio.
The Rebels are the second-most penalised team in the tournament. Perhaps the Sharks can punish the Rebels, and build some scoreboard pressure, via an accurate goal-kicking performance by Rob du Preez. The flyhalf boasts an 83% success-rate this season.
The Sharks simply have to claim a win this Friday. It won’t get any easier when they travel to New Zealand to face the Blues and Hurricanes in subsequent weeks.
Stats and facts
o The Rebels picked up a 9-9 draw in their last game against the Sharks, ending a run of four defeats against the South African side.
o The Sharks have won on each of their previous two visits to Melbourne to face the Rebels, those wins both coming by fewer than seven points, though.
o The Rebels have won their last two games on home turf, the last time they won more was a four-game stretch from April to June 2015.
o The Rebels have scored seven tries after forcing a turnover this campaign, two more than any other team in the competition.
o Four of the Sharks’ last six tries on Australian soil have been scored by forwards, with each of their last two such games seeing props cross for a five-pointer.
Rebels – 15 Jack Maddocks, 14 Sefa Naivalu, 13 Reece Hodge, 12 Billy Meakes, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Jack Debreczeni, 9 Will Genia, 8 Amanaki Mafi, 7 Colby Fainga’a, 6 Angus Cottrell, 5 Adam Coleman (c), 4 Geoff Parling, 3 Jermaine Ainsley, 2 Anaru Rangi, 1 Tetera Faulkner.
Subs: 16 Mahe Vailanu, 17 Fereti Sa’aga, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Matt Philip, 20 Ross Haylett-Petty, 21 Richard Hardwick, 22 Michael Ruru, 23 Tom English.
Sharks – 15 Curwin Bosch, 14 Sbu Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Marius Louw, 11 Lwazi Mvovo, 10 Rob du Preez, 9 Louis Schreuder, 8 Tera Mtembu, 7 Jean-Luc du Preez, 6 Jacques Vermeulen, 5 Stephan Lewies, 4 Ruan Botha (c), 3 Thomas du Toit, 2 Akker van der Merwe, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Subs: 16 Franco Marais, 17 Juan Schoeman, 18 John-Hubert Meyer, 19 Hyron Andrews, 20 Wian Vosloo, 21 Cameron Wright, 22 Kobus van Wyk, 23 Garth April.
SUNWOLVES vs CHIEFS (Tokyo, Saturday 06:15)
The Sunwolves surprised a lot of people with their recent performance against the Lions. The Japan-based franchise scored five tries and picked up a losing bonus point for their efforts at Ellis Park.
The Sunwolves thrived in a looser contest. One would expect another open game in Tokyo this Saturday, given the Chiefs’ reputation for running rugby.
The Chiefs rank in the top five in attacking categories such as metres made, clean breaks, defenders beaten and offloads. They have averaged 30.3 points and four tries per game in 2018.
Statistically, they have the third-best scrum in the tournament. The Sunwolves have the most secure scrum at this stage, with a 97% win-rate on their own ball.
This promises to be an entertaining game. Ultimately, the Chiefs should have too much power and class for the Sunwolves.
Stats and facts
o The Chiefs earned a 27-20 win in their only previous Super Rugby meeting with the Sunwolves, after taking a handy 20-3 lead into the half-time break.
o This will be the third time the Sunwolves have hosted opposition from New Zealand (won one, lost one), the previous two games seeing a total of 169 points scored.
o The Chiefs have won 10 of their last 12 games outside New Zealand, including each of their last three.
o The Chiefs (18) have made the most clean breaks per game this season, while the Sunwolves (10) have made the fewest.
o Hosea Saumaki boasts an average gain of 11m per carry this season, the most of any player to have made at least 20 carries.
Sunwolves – 15 Ryuji Noguchi, 14 Kotaro Matsushima, 13 Timothy Lafaele, 12 Michael Little, 11 Hosea Saumaki, 10 Yu Tamura, 9 Fumiaki Tanaka, 8 Willem Britz (c), 7 Edward Quirk, 6 Michael Leitch, 5 Uwe Helu, 4 Kazuki Himeno, 3 Hencus van Wyk, 2 Shota Horie, 1 Keita Inagaki.
Subs:16 Yusuke Niwai, 17 Craig Millar, 18 Jiwon Koo, 19 Wimpie van der Walt, 20 Yoshitaka Tokunaga, 21 Yutaka Nagare, 22 Robbie Robinson, 23 William Tupou.
Chiefs – 15 Marty McKenzie, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Johnny Fa’auli, 11 Solomon Alaimalo, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 8 Taleni Seu, 7 Sam Cane (c), 6 Lachlan Boshier, 5 Tyler Ardron, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Angus Ta’avao, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Aidan Ross.
Subs: 16 Liam Polwart, 17 Karl Tu’inukaufe, 18 Jeff Thwaites, 19 Michael Allardice, 20 Mitchell Karpik, 21 Brad Weber, 22 Sean Wainui, 23 Bailyn Sullivan.
Photo: Lee Warren/Gallo Images
