MARIETTE ADAMS looks ahead to the last three Super Rugby matches of round seven, including the game between the Bulls and Stormers.

BRUMBIES vs WARATAHS (Saturday, 10:45)

These two high-profile Australian teams have been shoved down the pecking order by the transformed Rebels, who have emerged as competition front-runners, and the Reds, who have also made a solid start to the season.

Inconsistency has been at the forefront of the Brumbies’ campaign. After scraping past the Sunwolves, they lost to the Reds and Rebels before a convincing triumph over the Sharks.

The Waratahs have fared even worse, having registered just one win in four games.

Both sides have been guilty of starting matches too passively, but it should make for interesting viewing to see who wrestles control of the game directly after half-time, as the Brumbies (36%) and Waratahs (41%) have scored most of their tries in the third quarter. You sense that whoever gains the upper-hand in that period will win the game.

Worryingly for the Brumbies, though, is the fact that 40% of the tries they’ve conceded have been in the last 20 minutes. Against a lethal Waratahs backline, who cut the Rebels to shreds a fortnight ago, the Brumbies will have to maintain their defensive efforts late in the game.

Stats and facts

• The Brumbies have won their last three games against the Waratahs, and will be searching for a fourth consecutive win against them for the first time in Super Rugby.
• The Brumbies have won 19 of their last 23 Australian derbies on home turf, including each of their last six by an average margin of 20 points.
• After a 51-27 win against the Rebels in round five, the Waratahs will be searching for back-to-back wins in Super Rugby for the first time since rounds 14 and 15 in 2016.
• The Brumbies have conceded just eight clean breaks per game this season, fewer than any other team.
• Israel Folau has made 12 offloads this campaign, the most of any player and more than twice as many as any Brumbies’ player (Lachlan McCaffrey, 5).

Brumbies – 15 Andy Muirhead, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano (c), 11 Lausii Taliauli, 10 Wharenui Hawera, 9 Joe Powell, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 David Pocock, 6 Lachlan McCaffrey, 5 Blake Enever, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 Scott Sio.
Subs: 16 Robbie Abel, 17 Faalelei Sione, 18 Mees Erasmus, 19 Richie Arnold, 20 Tom Cusack, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 Kyle Godwin, 23 Tom Banks.

Waratahs – 15 Bryce Hegarty, 14 Israel Folau, 13 Curtis Rona, 12 Kurtley Beale, 11 Taqele Naiyaravoro, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Jed Holloway, 7 Michael Hooper (c), 6 Michael Wells, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Ned Hannigan, 3 Sekope Kepu, 2 Damien Fitzpatrick, 1 Tom Robertson.
Subs: 16 Hugh Roach, 17 Harry Johnson-Holmes, 18 Paddy Ryan, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Will Miller, 21 Mitchell Short, 22 Lalakai Foketi, 23 Alex Newsome.

SUPERBRU: SA Rugby magazine team’s picks

BULLS vs STORMERS (Saturday, 17:15)

The biggest fixture on the South African Super Rugby calendar promises to be one of the better north-south derbies in recent history.

Yes, the Stormers have been the dominant force in this fixture in terms of results, winning six of the last seven matches. And yes, the Bulls have slumped to four consecutive defeats since their stunning two-point upset of the Hurricanes in round one.

But there’s been an unmistakable improvement in their style of play under coach John Mitchell. There’s an adventurous streak to their game that has been amiss for years and it could prove problematic for the Stormers on Saturday.

As we’ve come to expect from these matches, it should be another brutally physical encounter. The forward battle will be enthralling, with both teams averaging seven turnovers per game and boasting healthy lineout, scrum and ruck success rates. The Bulls rank first for lineout success (94%) and the Stormers second for scrummaging (95%). But as the teams move towards a more attacking brand of rugby, the duel between the backlines could make the difference.

The two sets of centres have been immense, with Springboks Jesse Kriel (Bulls) and Damian de Allende (Stormers) playing with renewed swagger and confidence.

However, the match-up between flyhalves Handré Pollard and Damian Willemse is the one that’ll capture the attention. While there have been calls for Willemse to play Test rugby this year, this individual contest should not be considered as an audition for the No 10 Bok jersey, at least not yet. It will, however, give a clearer indication of how highly the teenage sensation can be rated in the pecking order of South African flyhalves.

That said, it could all boil down to defensive discipline. Averaging well over 20 missed tackles per game is not good enough for the Bulls (23.4) and Stormers (25.5). It cost them on their respective tours of Australasia recently and they can ill-afford a repeat at Loftus.

Former Bok captain Adriaan Strauss is set to become the most experienced South African player in Super Rugby history as he earns his 149th cap and first start of the year.

In a timely boost for the Stormers, fullback SP Marais and wing Dillyn Leyds have returned to the starting lineup, while the inclusion of scrumhalf Justin Phillips and loosehead prop Steven Kitshoff are the other changes.

Stats and facts 

• The Stormers have won six of their last seven games against the Bulls, restricting them to fewer than seven first-half points in all but one of those games.
• The Bulls have won only one of their last seven games on home turf (lost six).
• The Stormers have won seven of their last nine South African derbies, including each of their last two and an eight-point win over the Bulls in their most recent such fixture.
• Not only have the Bulls (15) won the most lineouts per game of any team this season, but they’ve done so at a competition-high success rate of 94%.
• Damian de Allende (73) has made four more carries this season than any other player.

Bulls – 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Burger Odendaal (c), 11 Divan Rossouw, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Ivan van Zyl, 8 Tim Agaba, 7 Thembelani Bholi, 6 Marco van Staden, 5 Hanro Liebenberg, 4 Jason Jenkins, 3 Trevor Nyakane, 2 Adriaan Strauss, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Subs: 16 Jaco Visagie, 17 Frans va Wyk, 18 Lizo Gqoboka, 19 Hendré Stassen, 20 Roelof Smit, 21 Embrose Papier, 22 Manie Libbok, 23 Johnny Kötze.

Stormers –15 SP Marais, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 EW Viljoen, 12 Damian De Allende, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Justin Phillips, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Cobus Wiese, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 4 Jan de Klerk, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Ramone Samuels, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 JC Janse van Rensburg, 18 Carlu Sadie, 19 Chris van Zyl, 20 Kobus van Dyk, 21 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 22 Jano Vermaak, 23 Craig Barry.

PREVIEW: Super Rugby (Round 7, Part 1)

LIONS vs CRUSADERS (Sunday, 14:30)

This could go either way for the Lions, whose unusual dip in form and performance was underlined by a defeat against the Jaguares in Buenos Aires last weekend.

With their strongest available lineup in last year’s Super Rugby final, the Lions fell short against the Crusaders. For this specific clash, they’ll be without Warren Whiteley, Jaco Kriel, Ruan Combrinck and Courtnall Skosan due to injury as well as departed duo Faf de Klerk and Ruan Ackermann. Those factors, coupled with the Lions’ indifferent performances of late, do not bode well for the Johannesburg-based side.

The Lions will be desperate to return to winning ways, but that will only materialise if they improve their defensive frailties, which were horribly exposed in their last three matches against the Blues, Sunwolves (embarrassingly so) and Jaguares. They conceded a total of 16 tries in those games.

Another area of concern for Swys de Bruin’s men is the fact they have conceded an average of 18 turnovers per game. Against a classy Crusaders outfit, who – like all New Zealand sides – feast on their opponents’ mistakes, failure to protect the ball could be suicidal for the hosts.

In the past, the Lions’ attack has dug them out of many a hole, but poor execution on that front has also crept into their game during the early parts of this campaign.

For now, the Lions are still setting the pace in the South African conference, but there is a restlessness in their ranks that cannot be ignored. A win against the Crusaders would do wonders for their confidence and team morale.

Stats and facts

• The Crusaders have won eight of their last nine games against the Lions, including last season’s final. The Lions haven’t beaten the Crusaders in a regular-season clash since February 2007.
• The Lions have won 18 of their last 20 games on home turf, failing to pick up competition points only once in that time.
• The Crusaders have won six of their last seven games in South Africa, including each of their last three; never before have they won four on the bounce in the country.
• The Crusaders have finished two of their last three games against the Lions without losing a lineout on their own throw.
• Marvin Orie won a round-high nine lineouts in round six, the most by a Lions player in a single game this season.

Lions – 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Sylvian Mahuza, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Madosh Tambwe, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Dillon Smit, 8 Hacjivah Dayimani, 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Franco Mostert (c), 4 Andries Ferreira, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith.
Subs: 16 Corne Fourie, 17 Jacques van Rooyen, 18 Jacobie Adriaanse, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Marvin Orie, 21 Marnus Schoeman, 22 Howard Mnisi, 23 Shaun Reynolds.

Crusaders – 15 David Havili, 14 Seta Tamanivalu, 13 Jack Goodhue, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Mitchell Hunt, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Jordan Taufua, 7 Matt Todd, 6 Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, 5 Sam Whitelock (c), 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tim Perry.
Subs: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Oliver Jager, 19 Quinten Strange, 20 Tom Sanders, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Mike Delany, 23 Manasa Mataele.

Photo: Lee Warren/Gallo Images