MARIETTE ADAMS looks ahead to the last three Super Rugby matches of round eight, including the game between the Lions and Stormers.

BRUMBIES vs REDS (Saturday, 11:45)

The Brumbies will be wondering how on earth they’ve fallen so far behind the rest of their Australian counterparts. The Canberra-based side is 11 points off the top of the Aussie conference in fourth position and 11th in the overall Super Rugby standings.

So far this season, the Brumbies have lost all three of their derby encounters. Starting against the Reds this week, they have to make a statement in the three return derby fixtures in order to stay relevant in this conference and contend for the playoffs.

In round three, the Reds were 18-10 victors in an ill-disciplined affair thanks to three penalties apiece by halfback-axis Jono Lance and James Tuttle. On the evidence of that game, you’d say the Brumbies have to improve defensively, but several other aspects of their game have deteriorated rapidly since then.

Their attack is non-existent. They’ve made the fewest clean breaks (45) and beat the fewest defenders (91). And with a 57% success rate, the goal-kicking of Christian Leali’ifano, Wharenui Hawera and Chance Peni is also well below par.

The outcome of this contest could be a defining point in the Brumbies’ season.

The Reds have just one more win than the Brumbies this year, but unlike the Canberrans, there are more than enough positive signs to suggest they are an improving outfit.

Stats and facts 

• The Reds have won their last two games against the Brumbies, and will be looking for a third consecutive win against them for the first time in Super Rugby history.
• The Brumbies have lost their last four Australian derbies, their worst run since 2011. They’ve never lost five derbies on the bounce.
• Conversely, after losing 10 Aussie derbies in a row, the Reds have since won three of their last five domestic battles.
• The Brumbies (18.6) and Reds (18.8) are the only two sides to average fewer than 20 points per game this season.
• Flyhalf Wharenui Hawera has landed eight out of eight penalty goals this season, yet missed four of five conversion attempts.

Brumbies – 15 Tom Banks, 14 Henry Speight, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Chance Peni, 10 Wharenui Hawera, 9 Matt Lucas, 8 Isi Naisarani, 7 David Pocock, 6 Lachlan McCaffrey, 5 Rory Arnold, 4 Blake Enever, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Folau Faingaa, 1 Scott Sio.
Subs: 16 Robbie Abel, 17 Faalelei Sione, 18 Les Leuluaialii-Makin, 19 Sam Carter, 20 Tom Cusack, 21 Joe Powell, 22 Kyle Godwin, 23 James Verity-Amm.

Reds – 15 Aidan Toua, 14 Filipo Daugunu, 13 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Eto Nabuli, 10 Jono Lance, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Scott Higginbotham (c), 7 Adam Korczyk, 6 Caleb Timu, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 James Slipper.
Subs: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 JP Smith, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Lukhan Tui, 20 Liam Wright, 21 James Tuttle, 22 Hamish Stewart, 23 Jordan Petaia.

SUPERBRU: SA Rugby magazine’s predictions

LIONS vs STORMERS (Saturday, 17:15)

This could potentially be the most important fixture in the South African conference. The Lions’ form has come into sharp focus following underwhelming performances in their last four matches, which resulted in three defeats and an unconvincing win against the Sunwolves.

Questions are being raised about new head coach Swys de Bruin’s tactics and the senior players’ newfound inability to step up when the pressure is on; while there is also growing concern about their overall chances of reaching a third consecutive final.

After their horror three-match tour of Australasia, the Stormers returned to Cape Town where they beat the Blues and Reds before slumping to a 10-point loss against the Bulls at Loftus last weekend.

Despite their mixed results, the Lions are still at the top of the South African conference log, seven points clear of the next-best Stormers. Coming off demoralising defeats, both teams will be looking to return to winning ways.

The hosts have welcomed back right wing Ruan Combrinck after a long absence due to injury. The Lions have created chances aplenty in recent weeks, but lacked the killer instinct that was the hallmark of their previous two seasons. The inclusion of the 27-year-old may lead to better execution out wide.

The Stormers have had to make a couple of injury-enforced changes to their lineup, with scrumhalf Jano Vermaak and lock Chris van Zyl coming in for Justin Phillips (rib) and Cobus Wiese (hamstring). Pieter-Steph du Toit reverts to blindside flank to accommodate Van Zyl in the second row.

The one thing these teams have in common is the fact that their respective packs were outplayed by the Crusaders and Bulls last weekend, despite being inserted as slight favourites to win the forward exchanges before kick-off.

Both sets of forwards will want to produce a backlash of sorts, making the battle up front all the more intriguing. The Lions have two Boks in their pack, while the Stormers have the luxury of five Test-capped forwards in their starting XV.

It’s worth noting that the Lions are on a 17-match winning streak against South African teams and have not lost to a local side at Ellis Park since 2015 when, incidentally, the Stormers beat them 22-19.

All things considered, it’s probably fair to make Lions the favourites to pull off a win. Whatever the outcome, expect a physical, explosive contest at Ellis Park, one which can make or break either team’s season.

Stats and facts 

• The Lions have won their last two games against the Stormers; they had previously earned just one win in 13 games against them (one draw and 11 defeats).
• The Lions have lost back to back matches for the first time since February 2015; that run lasted three matches.
• The Lions have, however, won their last 17 South African derbies and have not lost such a match on home turf since the Stormers turned them over in February 2015.
• The Lions have averaged five tries per match this season, the best rate of any side in the competition.
• Stormers captain Siya Kolisi has missed more tackles than any other player this season (21); teammate Raymond Rhule (19) is second on the list.

Lions – 15 Andries Coetzee, 14 Ruan Combrinck, 13 Lionel Mapoe, 12 Harold Vorster, 11 Madosh Tambwe, 10 Elton Jantjies, 9 Dillon Smit, 8 Hacjivah Dayimani, 7 Cyle Brink, 6 Kwagga Smith, 5 Franco Mostert (c), 4 Marvin Orie, 3 Ruan Dreyer, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Dylan Smith.
Subs: 16 Corné Fourie, 17 Jacques van Rooyen, 18 Johannes Jonker, 19 Lourens Erasmus, 20 Marnus Schoeman, 21 Marco Jansen van Vuren, 22 Howard Mnisi, 23 Sylvian Mahuza.

Stormers – 15 SP Marais, 14 Dillyn Leyds, 13 EW Viljoen, 12 Damian De Allende, 11 Raymond Rhule, 10 Damian Willemse, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Nizaam Carr, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (c), 5 Chris van Zyl, 4 Jan de Klerk, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Ramone Samuels, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Subs: 16 Scarra Ntubeni, 17 JC Janse van Rensburg, 18 Carlu Sadie, 19 Kobus van Dyk, 20 Sikhumbuzo Notshe, 21 Jaco Coetzee, 22 Paul de Wet, 23 Craig Barry.

PREVIEW: Super Rugby (Round 8, Part 1)

JAGUARES vs CRUSADERS (Saturday, 23:40)

This is the biggest mismatch of the round. The Crusaders will be eager to have a go at this inconsistent Jaguares team.

Both sides have beaten the Lions over the past fortnight, but as much as consistency in performance is one of the Crusaders’ greatest strengths, it’s one of the Jaguares’ biggest weaknesses.

Like the class clown at school, the Jaguares like to entertain everyone (with their silky skills), even though at times it is to their own detriment.

Man for man, the Jaguares boast one of the strongest squads in the competition, but if they want to be considered as serious contenders they have to alter their all-out attack strategy, allowing for a more pragmatic and sensible approach.

Yes, the Jaguares will in all likelihood score a couple of good-looking tries, but a blowout win for the Crusaders is certainly on the cards.

Stats and facts

• The Crusaders earned a 32-15 win in round eight in 2016, the only previous meeting between these two teams.
• The Jaguares are still hunting for their maiden win against New Zealand opposition, conceding 30-plus points in all but one of their previous six such fixtures.
• The Crusaders have won 12 of their last 13 away games outside of New Zealand, including their last seven in a row.
• Pablo Matera has made 69 carries so far, the most of any player yet to score a try (fourth-most overall).
• The Jaguares have a cumulative points difference of over 35 in the first quarter of their matches this season, the best of any side. However, they are the only side to have a negative points difference in each of the three remaining quarters.

Jaguares – 15 Joaquin Tuculet, 14 Bautista Delguy, 13 Matias Orlando, 12 Bautista Ezcurra, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Javier Ortega Desio, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Pablo Matera (c), 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 2 Agustin Creevy, 1 Santiago Garcia Botta.
Subs: 16 Julian Montoya, 17 Felipe Arregui, 18 Juan Pablo Zeiss, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 21 Martin Landajo, 22 Jeronimo de la Fuente, 23 Ramiro Moyano.

Crusaders – 15 David Havili, 14 Manasa Mataele, 13 Tim Bateman, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 George Bridge, 10 Mitchell Hunt, 9 Bryn Hall, 8 Heiden Bedwell-Curtis, 7 Matt Todd, 6 Tom Sanders, 5 Sam Whitelock (c), 4 Luke Romano, 3 Michael Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tim Perry
Subs: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Donald Brighouse, 18 Chris King, 19 Quinten Strange, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Mitchell Drummond, 22 Mike Delany, 23 Braydon Ennor.

Photo: Carl Fourie/Gallo Images